A paper ban, full of emotional 100 thousand + spread, the domestic rarely on the chip, the domestic "lack of core and less soul" status of a centralized study. Many of the spread of the text, emotional thicker than the mobile phone screen three meters far can feel, and at the end of the system, even BAT to "call the arm to call".

But after more than a week of precipitation, the "lack of core and soul" has also embarked on a gradually quiet road, leaving only a number of investors who continue to watch the stock of domestic chips.

How should we look at the development trend of the global semiconductor industry? What are the reasons for China's backwardness in this field? Today we throw aside the emotional factors and look at the Buddha system.

Are you sure you really know the meaning of a semiconductor?

Semiconductor is very big, far larger than most people think. This is not only reflected in the scale of the semiconductor industry, but also in the history of human development.

As the starting point of the third industrial revolution, the semiconductor industry has spawned a number of important achievements, such as computers, modern communications and industrial digitalization. More importantly, semiconductors provide the whole mankind with sustained and high-speed driving force for more than 30 years. It is unprecedented in modern history that single technology is so durable and so fast that it leads the whole society forward.

Michael Cembalest, the director of the market and investment strategy of JP Morgan, produced a report in 2012 to collect and estimate the GDP changes of the major international economies in the year 1-2001 A.D. The most obvious feature is the "big turning point" in nineteenth Century. Of course, in the course of these 100 years, the big event is absolutely more than a semiconductor. Naturally, it can not be said that the latter is the only factor to create this turning point.

According to the 1960-2016 years of global GDP trends in the other World Bank (World Bank) statistics, we can see clearly that the high-speed growth of GDP and the rise of the semiconductor industry are coincidental: from the beginning of the 1980s boom in semiconductor technology, the global GDP has entered "no advance". The development period has increased by nearly 5 times in 30 years.

As the main driving force of traditional GDP, the global population increased by only 50% over the past 30 years. In 2015, IHS, an internationally renowned consultancy, had only made a report on Moore's law 50th anniversary, which fully explained the influence of semiconductor technology. During the period, there are some charts and summary data.

The development of semiconductor industry has led the development of global productivity, and has changed the structure of the industry at the same time.

The development of the global semiconductor industry is highly similar to the changing trend of global GDP, and there is "great progress in the semiconductor industry on 1984 (personal computers), 1990 (Internet birth), 2002 (3G communication era), 2007 (smart phone birth), and so on. "Correspond to it.

At the end of the report, IHS also gave two figures estimated by himself:

Because of the innovation of Moore's law, the global GDP has increased by US $3 trillion in the past 20 years (1995-2015).

If the industry is driven by Moore's law, the figure is likely to expand to $11 trillion.

In a comparison with the world bank's global GDP figures above, the global GDP growth in the past 1995-2015 years was $43 trillion and 910 billion, and the influence of semiconductors was visible.

Semiconductors are global and most of them are also American.

As a pioneer of semiconductor industry and a leader for many years, the United States does have a great advantage in the semiconductor industry. In an example of the global semiconductor industry's distribution of interests, a 2015 statistics from the US Department of Commerce pointed out that in a total of $335 billion in the global semiconductor industry, the United States had a total of $166 billion.

According to Gartner and IHS, a global semiconductor company, which began to count in 1987, Gartner and IHS, the United States has been in the high position, and after entering the 21 reality, the ratio of 40-50% is basically hovering.

But even if the United States has the absolute right of utterance in the core technology of the whole semiconductor industry, the global semiconductor industry has not portrayed the United States as "the only pole" in the two major factors of economic globalization and commercialization for many years, but it is replaced by the close global combination and production.

This is why some people say that the US ban can be regarded as "one thousand of the enemy, eight hundred of self harm". Although upstream has an advantage in terms of profit distribution and voice rights, without upstream support, the upstream industry is also uneasy.

The 3 largest semiconductor manufacturing equipment in the world

As a technology intensive industry, the global division of semiconductors is also very clear: core electronics, optics, and mechanical technology mainly come from developed countries such as the United States, Europe and Japan; large mass manufacturing based on capital and manufacturing technology, concentrated in the most efficient East Asia, and the most densely populated Asia Pacific, The latter created the largest market space.

Many acquisitions have taken place over the past 10 years in the communications industry

However, the semiconductor industry is not strictly separated by region, especially in recent years of capital globalization, in many different countries, semiconductor enterprises have actually been closely linked through investment, equity and other forms.

This situation, which has long been developed by the market, is a silent reminder that it is almost impossible to escape the globalized industrial system if you want to survive in the semiconductor industry.